Heard Here First

They sound familiar because they've come to be widely accepted by the travel and technology industries, or they have been proven right overtime.  You heard them here first in any case. 

Here are just a few of the predictions, forecasts, and strategic assessments I've made over the years in print that gave you early warning of what was going to happen--if you were reading these pages.  Often you would have had five or ten years to plan and make adjustments to your business or technology position.

  • Proprietary operating systems were not the way and would be overtaken by UNIX (1984).

  • Projects for so-called "neutral" reservations systems were not going anywhere then (1984) or hence (1998).

  • The cost of replicating existing CRS functionality vastly exceeded the trivial amounts neutral system backers projected (1994).

  • ETDN initiatives were dead on arrival because customers didn't want them (1991)

  • Ticketless travel was the future of the industry (1985).

  • Travel Management Companies (TMCs) that built their service profiles around ticket issuance could not survive and desperately needed reengineering (1991).

  • The long-term position of CRS technology in travel distribution should be seriously questioned (1989).

  • Travel technology offerings do nothing to boost productivity--a critical strategic deficiency for TMCs and their customers (1991).

  • Airline "fare simplification" schemes are short-term and will fail within months (1993).

  • The strategic technologies of major TMCs are ill-conceived and unsustainable (1993).

  • PCs do not boost individual worker productivity (1993).

  • Travel distribution will evolve, resulting in the displacement and disintermediation of TMCs unless they take immediate steps to redesign their businesses (1994).

  • The Internet is not the "great equalizer" of agency competitiveness; most agents will be big-time losers on The Internet; only a handful of major, well-funded entities will survive (1995).

  • No electronic travel distributor understands their customer or knows the first thing about what those customers will really buy (1998).

  • Internet travel companies need real customers and real earnings before they can be considered real businesses (1999)

  • The Y2K catastrophes predicted for travel and society in general won't happen (1998).

  • On-line travel auctions won't succeed (1999).

  • Without something to sell, techno-gadgets only cost you money (2000).

  • Well-managed travel companies (agents and vendors) would recover quickly from September 11, 2001 (2001).

  • IATA's New Distribution Capability is a poorly conceived program that goes far beyond data standards--and it probably won't work (2013).

  • Open Booking, Travel Management 2.0, and similar ideas are unproven, untested, and unreliable theories that pose serious business and operational risks to travel buyers that are not offset by speculative benefits (2013).

  • Travel distribution "ecosystems" have been tried before and don't benefit the industry (2014).


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